The Economy is an Elephant.......
Everywhere one looks there are indicators of what is what with our economy.
Here are some local aspects....
Deli-Treasures at Mid-Valley has closed. Bill was our go-to guy for box lunches....but his clientele was mostly construction guys. Lots of folks from the Preserve.....
Oh, well.
The winery and ranch owned by one of the richest guys I know.....in terms of disposable income (movie money) is for sale. My friends who work there are trying to keep spirits up and the place open so they can keep their jobs. The place could be PolyFace Farms West....but the principals are bummed and bored, so they want out. The only decision is to close it now and try to sell it with the unsold inventory.....or keep it running and try to sell it as a running concern.
And, meanwhile....their wine is great. Well made, well packaged......the ranch is poised to be a great asset to the community and the economy for decades and generations hence.....
And.....I have to look at the ranch every time I look over the top of my computer screen, or whenever Grandpuppy and I take our morning walks.
Oh, well.
On a similar note, geographically......a fucker who bought the other half of the ranch above, and installed a vanity vineyard, and a barn made of Amazonian hardwoods covered with rare baseball-pitchers-granny's-Massachusetts slate to house his Texas quarter horses......was in bankruptcy court this month.
One never gloats or rejoices over bankruptcies.....
But this guy has never hired a legal immigrant, never hired a skilled union worker, and never shirked at dodging every law and regulation involving human decency..... in his life.....at least in his life in Carmel Valley. Donations to Cachagua Fire? Nope.
Fuck 'em. I'll call a helicopter.
Why should I pay $200 a year to protect my $20 million dollar investment and participate in the community? Fuck these assholes.
(Rupert Murdoch owns the place across the road.....and feels the same way).
Now his sun-scorched, afternoon wind-battered faux "Gated Golf Community" is in the weeds.....
Imagine that......
Boutique hotels in Carmel have had full weeks with zero occupancy........
We have been trying to build some greenhouses, chicken houses, some raised beds and stuff like that. Our workers are Union carpenters with more than 25 years experience who we are trying to keep in their houses by me inventing work for them...at a third their Union wages.
A kitchen guy is hiring carpenters? This is wrong by a factor of at least three!
The Union meanwhile....the President of the Union is working jobs where he is using illegal workers over his own Union brothers. They are cheaper, you see.....and his Dad was the head of the Union before him....so it is all cool. Meanwhile, I am paying his Union guys more than he is paying his illegal workers.....
I notice that the trade suppliers are nice to me now. Us faggy food folk have always been the last people noticed or served at lumber yards and electrical supply places. The auto people have always been good to us (Skip's rules!) because we have 13 vehicles and we drive 200,000 miles a year.
Now, the lumber folk are nice. They call me back. They compete....and I try to ignore the hint of desperation in their voices as they talk about free delivery.
The organic top-soil guy apologizes so profusely for missing my call that I have to calm him down:
"I am so sorry I missed your call. It is supposed to forward to my cell-phone....I don't know what happened. I am really, really sorry.....Like everyone else, I have cut my staff, and I have to do the office myself."
Dude....It is fine, calm down. You are talking to a guy who checks his voicemail every two weeks, not every two hours. I have given up wading through hundreds of messages per year from Asians wanting to renew my non-existant auto warrantee to pan out the odd customer who wants a wedding......
Things must be really tough in Dirt Land......
The guy will deliver a ten-wheel truck with 18 yards of dirt to Cachagua for $150. No one delivers anything to Cachagua. Our last bid was $600 and a blow job. Now the blow job is on the other foot....so to speak.
And, dude: we have been doing our own office for 32 years....
That is why we are broke, probably.
Trying to order redwood boards for our beds....suddenly Harold from the big lumber yard is my buddy. Email, facebook.....call me anytime with your quote reference.
Meanwhile, the owner of the lumber yard's new wife hates us because we knew him and did parties for him before.....with his ex-girlfriends.....
And we speak Spanish with him and that is such a threat because we both love Spain......
Even Murphy's seems to have dropped their resistance to our faggy-foodness.....or whatever it is that has caused them to look at me like I have just had botox for my frown lines.....for the last 30 years.
There is further cause for concern....
From 538.com....my friend, Nate Silver...who is an engineering geek. Nate is the guy who not only aced the Statistics final.....but actually loved the class.
Nate is a Maritan....but he called Obama, down to the individual electoral vote; Nate called the Devil Rays winning the stupid baseball thing; Nate called the Oscars.....
Here is Nate's take on one aspect of the economy.......
"The chart that follows details the quarterly change in alcohol purchased for home consumption, adjusted for inflation and dating all the way back to 1959. We can compare this against the quarterly change in real GDP:
As you can see, there has generally not been much of a relationship between alcohol purchases and changes in GDP -- the correlation is essentially zero. Nor have alcohol purchases historically been any kind of lagging or leading indicator.
But something was very, very different in the fourth quarter of 2008. Sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption were down by 9.3 percent from the previous quarter, according to the Commerce Department. This is absolutely unprecedented: the largest previous drop had been just 3.7 percent, between the third and fourth quarters of 1991.
Beer accounts for almost all of the decrease, with revenues off by almost 14 percent. Wine and spirits were much more stable, with sales volumes declining by 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.
Now, there are several plausible explanations for this. Alcohol sales -- but particularly beer -- had been on something of a hot streak prior to the 4Q, so perhaps there was some reversion to the mean. Perhaps people are substituting Michelob and Coors for more expensive microbrews like Alpha King and Dogfish Head. (This is unpatriotic, by the way, since all the macrobrews are now owned by foreign-based multinational conglomerates. Stimulate your country -- and your tastebuds!).
Perhaps retailers are discounting their prices, or brewers are passing along cost savings to their consumers (there had been a hops shortage for much of 2007-08). All of these are probably factors to some extent or another.
Nevertheless, it's absolutely startling to see a major consumer staple experience a sales decline like this."
At The Cachagua Store......folks have shifted from Fat Tire to Coors. The Mexicans have shifted from Corona and Pacifico to Modelo (which is weird because they all cost the same here in America del Norte).
Only on Sunday do things remain the same.
Sundays are for validation. Fat Tire. Guinness. Newcastle.
Who knows what any of this means.
Amongst the blind men.....I am with the Trunk Guy.
I don't know what exactly it is...but it is thick, strong, versatile....
And it just stole my lunch.
Here are some local aspects....
Deli-Treasures at Mid-Valley has closed. Bill was our go-to guy for box lunches....but his clientele was mostly construction guys. Lots of folks from the Preserve.....
Oh, well.
The winery and ranch owned by one of the richest guys I know.....in terms of disposable income (movie money) is for sale. My friends who work there are trying to keep spirits up and the place open so they can keep their jobs. The place could be PolyFace Farms West....but the principals are bummed and bored, so they want out. The only decision is to close it now and try to sell it with the unsold inventory.....or keep it running and try to sell it as a running concern.
And, meanwhile....their wine is great. Well made, well packaged......the ranch is poised to be a great asset to the community and the economy for decades and generations hence.....
And.....I have to look at the ranch every time I look over the top of my computer screen, or whenever Grandpuppy and I take our morning walks.
Oh, well.
On a similar note, geographically......a fucker who bought the other half of the ranch above, and installed a vanity vineyard, and a barn made of Amazonian hardwoods covered with rare baseball-pitchers-granny's-Massachusetts slate to house his Texas quarter horses......was in bankruptcy court this month.
One never gloats or rejoices over bankruptcies.....
But this guy has never hired a legal immigrant, never hired a skilled union worker, and never shirked at dodging every law and regulation involving human decency..... in his life.....at least in his life in Carmel Valley. Donations to Cachagua Fire? Nope.
Fuck 'em. I'll call a helicopter.
Why should I pay $200 a year to protect my $20 million dollar investment and participate in the community? Fuck these assholes.
(Rupert Murdoch owns the place across the road.....and feels the same way).
Now his sun-scorched, afternoon wind-battered faux "Gated Golf Community" is in the weeds.....
Imagine that......
Boutique hotels in Carmel have had full weeks with zero occupancy........
We have been trying to build some greenhouses, chicken houses, some raised beds and stuff like that. Our workers are Union carpenters with more than 25 years experience who we are trying to keep in their houses by me inventing work for them...at a third their Union wages.
A kitchen guy is hiring carpenters? This is wrong by a factor of at least three!
The Union meanwhile....the President of the Union is working jobs where he is using illegal workers over his own Union brothers. They are cheaper, you see.....and his Dad was the head of the Union before him....so it is all cool. Meanwhile, I am paying his Union guys more than he is paying his illegal workers.....
I notice that the trade suppliers are nice to me now. Us faggy food folk have always been the last people noticed or served at lumber yards and electrical supply places. The auto people have always been good to us (Skip's rules!) because we have 13 vehicles and we drive 200,000 miles a year.
Now, the lumber folk are nice. They call me back. They compete....and I try to ignore the hint of desperation in their voices as they talk about free delivery.
The organic top-soil guy apologizes so profusely for missing my call that I have to calm him down:
"I am so sorry I missed your call. It is supposed to forward to my cell-phone....I don't know what happened. I am really, really sorry.....Like everyone else, I have cut my staff, and I have to do the office myself."
Dude....It is fine, calm down. You are talking to a guy who checks his voicemail every two weeks, not every two hours. I have given up wading through hundreds of messages per year from Asians wanting to renew my non-existant auto warrantee to pan out the odd customer who wants a wedding......
Things must be really tough in Dirt Land......
The guy will deliver a ten-wheel truck with 18 yards of dirt to Cachagua for $150. No one delivers anything to Cachagua. Our last bid was $600 and a blow job. Now the blow job is on the other foot....so to speak.
And, dude: we have been doing our own office for 32 years....
That is why we are broke, probably.
Trying to order redwood boards for our beds....suddenly Harold from the big lumber yard is my buddy. Email, facebook.....call me anytime with your quote reference.
Meanwhile, the owner of the lumber yard's new wife hates us because we knew him and did parties for him before.....with his ex-girlfriends.....
And we speak Spanish with him and that is such a threat because we both love Spain......
Even Murphy's seems to have dropped their resistance to our faggy-foodness.....or whatever it is that has caused them to look at me like I have just had botox for my frown lines.....for the last 30 years.
There is further cause for concern....
From 538.com....my friend, Nate Silver...who is an engineering geek. Nate is the guy who not only aced the Statistics final.....but actually loved the class.
Nate is a Maritan....but he called Obama, down to the individual electoral vote; Nate called the Devil Rays winning the stupid baseball thing; Nate called the Oscars.....
Here is Nate's take on one aspect of the economy.......
"The chart that follows details the quarterly change in alcohol purchased for home consumption, adjusted for inflation and dating all the way back to 1959. We can compare this against the quarterly change in real GDP:
As you can see, there has generally not been much of a relationship between alcohol purchases and changes in GDP -- the correlation is essentially zero. Nor have alcohol purchases historically been any kind of lagging or leading indicator.
But something was very, very different in the fourth quarter of 2008. Sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption were down by 9.3 percent from the previous quarter, according to the Commerce Department. This is absolutely unprecedented: the largest previous drop had been just 3.7 percent, between the third and fourth quarters of 1991.
Beer accounts for almost all of the decrease, with revenues off by almost 14 percent. Wine and spirits were much more stable, with sales volumes declining by 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.
Now, there are several plausible explanations for this. Alcohol sales -- but particularly beer -- had been on something of a hot streak prior to the 4Q, so perhaps there was some reversion to the mean. Perhaps people are substituting Michelob and Coors for more expensive microbrews like Alpha King and Dogfish Head. (This is unpatriotic, by the way, since all the macrobrews are now owned by foreign-based multinational conglomerates. Stimulate your country -- and your tastebuds!).
Perhaps retailers are discounting their prices, or brewers are passing along cost savings to their consumers (there had been a hops shortage for much of 2007-08). All of these are probably factors to some extent or another.
Nevertheless, it's absolutely startling to see a major consumer staple experience a sales decline like this."
At The Cachagua Store......folks have shifted from Fat Tire to Coors. The Mexicans have shifted from Corona and Pacifico to Modelo (which is weird because they all cost the same here in America del Norte).
Only on Sunday do things remain the same.
Sundays are for validation. Fat Tire. Guinness. Newcastle.
Who knows what any of this means.
Amongst the blind men.....I am with the Trunk Guy.
I don't know what exactly it is...but it is thick, strong, versatile....
And it just stole my lunch.
posted by Txacoli at 9:51 PM
1 Comments:
Oh shit.
I knew about DeRegts bankruptcy and chuckled to myself over that one....Karma?
But I am guessing the other ranch up for sale is right next door....oh argghh. That sucks. No doubt whoever buys it wont let me ride on the land and will want to take advantage of the subdivision Ms. Porter put in ages ago.
As for beer...I always loved a nice frothy amber ale in the afternoon. Its a terribly civilized habit....but now I am reduced to drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon for economical reasons...which means I just dont drink beer too often anymore.
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